Tracking enduring urban-rural inequities in residential heating and cooling loads across Chinese provinces

Abstract

Climate change and rising thermal comfort demand make residential heating and cooling central to building-sector decarbonization. This study presents the first bottom-up modeling framework to estimate residential heating and cooling loads across 30 Chinese provinces. The model, developed using EnergyPlus simulations of representative building prototypes, captures energy consumption patterns in both urban and rural housing over the period 1980-2024. The results indicate that: (1) In 2020, Guangdong recorded the highest cooling loads (76.5 TWh/a urban; 63.0 TWh/a rural). Henan exhibited the highest rural heating load (174.6 TWh/a), while urban heating loads were highest in Liaoning and Shandong. (2) Between 1980 and 2024, average urban cooling loads increased from 12.4 to 15.1 kWh/m2 a, whereas rural cooling loads declined from 22.63 to 19.87 kWh/m2 a. Urban heating loads decreased from 44.08 to 39.92 kWh/m2 a, and rural heating loads declined more markedly from 100.15 to 72.42 kWh/m2 a. (3) Urban residential floor area has exceeded rural stock in 22 provinces in recent years, compared with only four provinces in 2000. Moreover, the existence of 12 urban energy-efficiency standards versus a single rural standard highlights persistent envelope-performance disparities. These structural and regulatory differences have produced sustained urban-rural divergence in residential heating and cooling demand. The proposed framework provides a replicable basis for region-specific clean heating strategies and differentiated building standards to support carbon neutrality.