Long-term behavior of casino games

Abstract

We study the asymptotic behavior of the ratio of total return (or total profit) to total amount bet in a casino game. While the limit is well understood when the sequence of wagers is independent and identically distributed, here we consider the case in which bet sizes vary over time and may depend on past outcomes. We propose a general framework that yields such results under mild conditions on the conditional expectations of bets, returns, and profits. The set-up applies to many casino games (including compound games and those in which wagers are not immediately resolved), expressing the long-term behavior in terms of intrinsic parameters, namely return to player (RTP) and house advantage (HA). As an application, we examine the roulette win documented in Leigh's (1976) Thirteen against the Bank and attempt to quantify the likelihood that the story is true.