Predicting core transport in ITER baseline discharges with neon injections

Abstract

Achieving self-consistent performance predictions for ITER requires integrated modeling of core transport and divertor power exhaust under realistic impurity conditions. We present results from the first systematic power-flow and impurity-content study for the ITER 15 MA baseline scenario constrained directly by existing SOLPS-ITER neon-seeded divertor solutions. Using the OMFIT STEP workflow, stationary temperature and density profiles are predicted with TGYRO for $1.5 \le Z_{\rm eff} \le 2.5$, and the corresponding power crossing the separatrix $P_{\rm sep}$ is evaluated. We find that $P_{\rm sep}$ varies by more than a factor of 1.7 across this scan and matches the $\sim 100$~MW SOLPS-ITER prediction when $Z_{\rm eff} \simeq 1.6$ or when auxiliary heating is reduced to $\sim 75\%$ of nominal. Rotation-sensitivity studies show that plausible variations in toroidal flow magnitude modify $P_{\rm sep}$ by $\lesssim 20\%$, while AURORA modeling confirms that charge-exchange radiation inside the separatrix is dynamically negligible under predicted ITER neutral densities. These results identify a restricted compatibility window, $Z_{\rm eff} \approx 1.6$--1.75 and $0.75 \lesssim f_{P_{\rm aux}} \le 1.0$, in which core transport predictions remain aligned with neon-seeded divertor protection targets. This self-consistent, model-constrained framework provides actionable guidance for impurity control and auxiliary-heating scheduling in early ITER operation and supports future whole-device scenario optimization.