Notes on the 33-point Erd\H{o}s--Szekeres problem

Abstract

The determination of $ES(7)$ is the first open case of the planar Erd\H{o}s--Szekeres problem, where the general conjecture predicts $ES(7)=33$. We present a SAT encoding for the 33-point case based on triple-orientation variables and a 4-set convexity criterion for excluding convex 7-gons, together with convex-layer anchoring constraints. The framework yields UNSAT certificates for a collection of anchored subfamilies. We also report pronounced runtime variability across configurations, including heavy-tailed behavior that currently dominates the computational effort and motivates further encoding refinements.