Early warning signals of non-critical transitions from linearised time-varying dynamics with applications to epidemic systems

Abstract

In the wake of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there has been heightened interest from applied mathematicians in infectious disease modelling. Modelling efforts often focus on predicting whether diseases are likely to be eliminated or, instead, (re-)emerge, especially as a result of control measures.This tipping point between elimination and infection waves has been successfully anticipated in the literature through the use of early warning signals and such signals often rely on the theory of critical slowing down. Recent developments have shown that these signals (increases in fluctuation variance and return time) can emerge from the system geometry in the case of non-normal dynamics rather than a change in asymptotic stability. We show how such dynamical behaviour occurs in the fluctuations from the mean-field in general stochastic systems. Using the susceptible-infectious-recovered model as an example application, we analyse how critical-like behaviour can be exploited to anticipate infection waves in the absence of an equilibrium bifurcation.