Nota de Pol\'itica P\'ublica: Quanto de produtividade precisamos para reduzir a jornada de trabalho?

Abstract

Brazil's working-time debate is no longer only a choice between keeping the 44-hour week and moving directly to 36 hours. Alternatives around 40 hours, a five-day schedule and phased transitions are also on the table. This policy note asks a simple question for that choice: how much more productive would the economy need to become for each option not to reduce output in the short run? To answer, I combine Brazilian data on hours worked, informality, firm size and sectoral composition with a model of adjustment between formal and informal employment. The main result is that a move to 40 hours requires a productivity gain of about 2 percent. A direct move to 36 hours requires a much larger jump, between 6.6 and 8.2 percent, which is high relative to Brazil's recent productivity record. Informality also rises in the 36-hour scenario, by about 1.6 to 1.9 percentage points, but the main cost comes from fewer formal hours worked. The exercise does not say whether the reform should or should not move forward; it shows that size, timing and transition instruments change the arithmetic substantially. For policymakers, the message is direct: a phased route, with a stop near 40 hours, requires a much smaller productivity target than an immediate jump to 36 hours.