Evolutionary Systems Thinking -- From Equilibrium Models to Open-Ended Adaptive Dynamics

Abstract

Complex change is often described as "evolutionary" in economics, policy, and technology, yet most system dynamics models remain constrained to fixed state spaces and equilibrium-seeking behavior. This paper argues that evolutionary dynamics should be treated as a core system-thinking problem rather than as a biological metaphor. We introduce Stability-Driven Assembly (SDA) as a minimal, non-equilibrium framework in which stochastic interactions combined with differential persistence generate endogenous selection without genes, replication, or predefined fitness functions. In SDA, longer-lived patterns accumulate in the population, biasing future interactions and creating feedback between population composition and system dynamics. This feedback yields fitness-proportional sampling as an emergent property, realizing a natural genetic algorithm driven solely by stability. Using SDA, we demonstrate why equilibrium-constrained models, even when simulated numerically, cannot exhibit open-ended evolution: evolutionary systems require population-dependent, non-stationary dynamics in which structure and dynamics co-evolve. We conclude by discussing implications for system dynamics, economics, and policy modeling, and outline how agent-based and AI-enabled approaches may support evolutionary models capable of sustained novelty and structural emergence.