Conditional thinning and multiplicative statistics of Laguerre-type orthogonal polynomial ensembles

Abstract

We study the local statistics of orthogonal polynomial ensembles near a hard edge, subject to a multiplicative deformation of the measure. Probabilistically, this deformation corresponds to a position-dependent conditional thinning of the particles. We prove that, under critical hard edge scaling and for a large class of potentials and deformation symbols, the correlation kernel of the conditional ensemble converges to a universal limit, which we identify as the conditional thinned Bessel point process. We derive an explicit expression for this limiting kernel in terms of the solution to a nonlocal integrable system depending on a parameter. For a special choice of the parameter, this system was recently identified in the study of multiplicative statistics of the Bessel point process. Our results establish that this system governs the full correlation structure of the conditional Bessel point process, extending the classical connection between the standard Bessel kernel and the Painlev\'e V equation.