TWICE: Modeling the Temporal Evolution of Personalized User Behavior via Event-Driven Agents

Abstract

User simulators are widely used for data generation, evaluation, and agent-based interaction, but existing approaches often model users as static personas or rely on generic historical context, making it difficult to capture how individual behavior evolves over time. To address this limitation, we propose TWICE, an LLM-based framework for temporally grounded personalized user simulation. TWICE combines structured user profiling, an event-driven memory module organized around life events and behavioral shifts, and a two-stage workflow separating event-grounded content planning from personalized style adaptation. This design enables the simulator to model not only what a user says, but also how past experiences shape later expression. We evaluate TWICE on a large-scale longitudinal Twitter dataset and introduce a comprehensive evaluation framework that jointly measures authenticity, consistency, and humanlikeness. Results show that TWICE consistently outperforms strong baselines, suggesting that event-centered memory is a promising mechanism for modeling the temporal evolution of personalized user behavior.