Long-time behaviour of a nonlocal stochastic fractional reaction--diffusion equation arising in tumour dynamics

Abstract

We introduce a stochastic nonlocal reaction--diffusion model arising in tumour dynamics. Spatial dispersal is described by the fractional Laplacian, accounting for anomalous diffusion and long--range relocation events. The system is perturbed by multiplicative fractional Brownian motion (fBm) with Hurst parameter $H>1/2$, which we interpret as temporally correlated fluctuations in the tumour microenvironment and host response. We first establish well--posedness and identify parameter regimes leading to global--in--time solutions or finite--time blow--up under general multiplicative fractional noise. We then focus on linear multiplicative noise and, via a Doss--Sussmann transformation, derive sharper results: explicit lower and upper bounds for the blow--up time together with quantitative estimates of the blow--up probability, clarifying how noise intensity can accelerate progression or, on favourable paths, enhance suppression consistent with extinction (loss of viability). Finally, one--dimensional simulations illustrate the interplay between anomalous diffusion, fractional noise, and the nonlocal reaction mechanism in shaping the long--time dynamics.