Quantifying the Milky Way, LMC and their interaction using all-sky kinematics of outer halo stars

Abstract

The recent pericentric passage of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) has dislodged the Milky Way&#39;s (MW) centre of mass, inducing dynamical disequilibrium, the reflex motion, in the kinematics of outer stellar halo stars. Using data out to $160 \, \rm kpc$ from the combined H3+SEGUE+MagE outer halo survey, we constrain the mass of the MW and LMC, as well as the resulting reflex motion and the stellar halo velocity anisotropy. Using a suite of 32,000 rigid MW--LMC simulations, each with a MW stellar halo evolved to the present day in the combined MW--LMC potential, we perform Simulation Based Inference by training a neural posterior estimator on the means and dispersions of the radial and tangential velocities of stars from the combined H3+SEGUE+MagE outer halo sample. Relative to halo stars at $100 \, \rm kpc$, we find the magnitude of the reflex velocity to be $v_{\rm travel} = 38.6^{+8.3}_{-7.8}\,\rm km \, s^{-1}$. Simultaneously, we determine the enclosed MW mass, $M_{\rm MW}(< 50 \, \rm kpc) = 3.36 \pm 0.15 \times 10^{11}\, \rm M_{\odot}$ and the enclosed LMC mass, $M_{\rm LMC}(< 50 \, \rm kpc) = 8.76^{+1.94}_{-1.77} \times 10^{10}\, \rm M_{\odot}$. Our results suggest that the total LMC mass must be at least $\sim20\%$ that of the MW. The velocity anisotropy prior to the LMC&#39;s infall is constrained to be $β_0 = 0.68 \pm 0.02$. Finally, we demonstrate that neglecting the LMC in models biases the estimated MW mass to prefer more massive values.