Statistical Models of Ember Wash and Their Impact on Wildfire Area Growth

Abstract

Wildfire spread is strongly influenced by the transport and ignition of embers. While long-range spotting driven by plume lofting has received significant attention, embers transported near the surface by turbulent winds can also influence fire propagation. We develop a stochastic model for near-surface ember transport, referred to as ember wash. The model represents ember motion as a sequence of short displacements analogous to saltation-like transport and incorporates a probabilistic ignition process that depends on ember survival during transport. This formulation leads to an exponential distribution of ember flight times. The model is implemented within a simplified fire spread model to examine burn patterns and growth dynamics. Simulations demonstrate that ember wash produces spread behavior that differs fundamentally from classical plume-driven spotting. These results suggest that ember wash provides a plausible mechanism for wildfire spread regimes that differ from those predicted by geometric or plume-driven spread models.