The Retraction Epidemic in Science Across Publishers, Fields, and Countries

Abstract

Retractions serve as an indicator of failures in research integrity, yet most analyses focus on absolute counts rather than risk per paper. We use one of the largest open bibliographic databases to develop incidence metrics normalized by population: retractions per publication and per active author annually. Applying an epidemiological framework that models counts with exposure, we find evidence of exponential growth in retraction incidence, with approximately a 5-year doubling time at both the paper and author levels. These patterns vary significantly across fields, publishers, and countries. While scientific output is becoming more democratized globally, retractions are concentrated in fewer countries, creating a "concentration" paradox that calls for targeted monitoring. Despite exponential growth, the absolute incidence remains low (0.12% in 2021), allowing for corrective intervention. Incidence-based monitoring provides a framework for evaluating policies that safeguard research integrity at scale.