Future Amplification of Moist Weather Extremes in the Midlatitudes

Abstract

Moist heatwaves and convective storms frequently co-occur, posing compound risks. Although historically concentrated in the tropics, these moist weather extremes are projected to intensify substantially towards the midlatitudes, with regions downstream of major highland terrains, including northeastern Asia and eastern North America, emerging as hotspots of future change. Yet their physical drivers remain uncertain. Here we show that the intensification of concurrent moist heat and convection extremes in the midlatitudes is tightly constrained by changes in low-level atmospheric inversions. Specifically, we find that amplified warming over western highlands is transported downstream by prevailing westerlies, strengthening low-level thermal inversions and raising the attainable maxima of moist heat and convection. Targeted model experiments confirm the critical role of orographically elevated heating in driving these extremes. Our results reveal a mechanistic pathway for compound extremes and highlight low-level inversions as a key factor for emerging midlatitude risks of moist heat and severe weather under climate change.