PANORAMIC: The Dawn of Massive Quiescent Galaxies I. Number Density and Cosmic Variance from 1000 arcmin$^2$ NIRCam Imaging

Abstract

We measure the number density and field-to-field variance of massive quiescent galaxies at $z\sim3$ - 8 using the JWST/NIRCam pure-parallel imaging survey PANORAMIC together with archival observations, covering an area of 0.28 deg$^2$ ($\sim1000$ arcmin$^2$) in at least six filters. We identify quiescent galaxy candidates at $z\gtrsim3$ with $M_\ast \gtrsim 10^{10}\,M_\odot$, comprising 101 galaxies in a gold sample of high-confidence candidates and 137 in a more inclusive silver sample. We measure their evolving comoving number density, finding $(1.5$ vs. $3.1)\times10^{-5}\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-3}$ at $z=3$ - 4 for the gold and silver samples, respectively, and a decline by more than a factor of 20 by $z\sim6$. Comparisons with empirical models and cosmological simulations show that widely used frameworks underpredict the abundance of massive quiescent galaxies at $z\gtrsim4$ by $\gtrsim1$ dex, indicating that current implementations of early star formation, feedback, and quenching do not produce enough early quenched systems. With 34 independent sightlines, we present the first direct empirical measurement of field-to-field variance for quiescent galaxies at $z>3$, finding a high cosmic variance of $\sigma_{\rm CV}\approx0.7\pm0.3$. This exceeds predictions from abundance-matched mock catalogs, suggesting that early quiescent galaxies are more strongly clustered, and more likely to be found near one another or in more biased regions, than expected in current galaxy-formation models. Any successful model for the emergence of early massive quiescent galaxies must reproduce both their abundance evolution and their imprint on the large-scale distribution.