Winding Back the Clock: Recent Star Formation Histories of Massive Quiescent Galaxies Are Consistent With Their Rapid Number Density Evolution Since $\mathbf{z\sim7}$

Abstract

Massive quiescent galaxies have been identified out to $z\sim7$ in early JWST data in a substantial excess ($\rm \gtrsim 1\,dex$ at $z>4$) of number densities from most theoretical predictions. We investigate whether the number densities implied by the star formation histories of quiescent galaxies at $2<z<5$ are consistent with the observed number density evolution of that population since $z>7$. For this work, we rely on stellar population synthesis modeling of JWST NIRCam photometry (from CEERS and PRIMER) and NIRSpec/PRISM spectra of massive ($\rm M_{*} > 10^{10.5}M_{\odot}$) quiescent galaxies in the RUBIES survey. We infer their star-formation histories through Bayesian spectro-photometric fitting with Prospector, exploring the sensitivity of our results to stellar libraries and SFH priors. For each source, we compute a timescale over which it would be identified as quiescent -- leveraging the recent and most robust SFH timescale -- and deduce the number density of the quiescent population at previous epochs. These reconstructed number densities are then compared to existing observational constraints, including a new measurement from the PANORAMIC pure parallel survey, whose wide-area and independent sightlines reduce sensitivity to cosmic variance. We find striking agreement between reconstructed and observed number densities up to $z\sim7$, a self-consistency that lends credence to stellar population synthesis modeling of distant quiescent galaxies. Furthermore, by connecting the recent ($\rm \sim 1\,Gyr$) star-formation histories and number densities of quiescent galaxies and their implied progenitors, we reinforce the known tension between observations and model predictions at $3<z<7$.