Near real-time monitoring of global land-ocean cover dynamics

Abstract

Monitoring the dynamics of global land-ocean cover is fundamental for regulating the Earth's climate and sustaining terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, existing datasets and research often exhibit limitations in temporal resolution and timeliness, lack coupled analysis of land cover and sea ice dynamics, and fail to incorporate the perspective of Earth system safety thresholds. Here, we developed an integrated monitoring framework by fusing multi-source remote sensing and reanalysis data, generating a 5-day resolution time series (2018-2025) of global land cover and sea ice coverage with near-real-time update capability. Our analysis reveals distinct latitudinal and regional patterns, with forests dominating (27.0% of global land area) tropical and subtropical regions. At the national scale, land cover composition and seasonal rhythms vary significantly, with countries like China, India, and the US exhibiting divergent patterns such as bimodal cropland fluctuations and alternating snow/ice dominance. Temporally, vegetated cover types exhibit seasonal cycles peaking during Northern Hemisphere summer, and a pronounced anti-phase seasonal pattern is observed between Arctic and Antarctic sea ice coverage. Crucially, safety threshold analysis indicates the global forest cover indicator (~60%) is approaching the 54% lower safe limit, with a declining trend in recent years. Concurrently, Arctic sea ice coverage in September occasionally drops to 23%, below its critical upper limit of 27.6%. Temperature presents a significant negative correlation with sea ice cover (R = -0.78, p < 0.001), with asymmetric freezing and melting rates. By quantifying the proximity of key indicators to their safety thresholds, this study provides a robust, integrated framework for early-warning assessment, thereby offering vital scientific support for global climate adaptation and sustainable policymaking.