Threshold Top-Quark Pair-Production: Cross Sections and Key Uncertainties

Abstract

We study theoretical uncertainties in predicting top-quark pair-production near threshold at the LHC using the non-relativistic QCD framework. We include variations in the top-quark mass and width, the strong coupling $\alpha_s$, renormalization and factorization scales, and parton distribution functions, as well as uncertainties from the color-singlet and octet Green's functions that describe quasi-bound toponium formation. These uncertainties are compared with those from standard fixed-order QCD predictions, and implications for ATLAS and CMS analyses are discussed. For the LHC at 13 TeV center-of-mass energy, the integral of the top-quark pair invariant-mass distribution from 340 to 350 GeV is 11.67 pb with ${}^{+1.43}_{-1.47}$ pb uncertainty. The corresponding excess after subtracting the POWHEG-BOX result is 4.15 pb with the same uncertainties.