Task2vec Readiness: Diagnostics for Federated Learning from Pre-Training Embeddings

Abstract

Federated learning (FL) performance is highly sensitive to heterogeneity across clients, yet practitioners lack reliable methods to anticipate how a federation will behave before training. We propose readiness indices, derived from Task2Vec embeddings, that quantifies the alignment of a federation prior to training and correlates with its eventual performance. Our approach computes unsupervised metrics -- such as cohesion, dispersion, and density -- directly from client embeddings. We evaluate these indices across diverse datasets (CIFAR-10, FEMNIST, PathMNIST, BloodMNIST) and client counts (10--20), under Dirichlet heterogeneity levels spanning $\alpha \in \{0.05,\dots,5.0\}$ and FedAVG aggregation strategy. Correlation analyses show consistent and significant Pearson and Spearman coefficients between some of the Task2Vec-based readiness and final performance, with values often exceeding 0.9 across dataset$\times$client configurations, validating this approach as a robust proxy for FL outcomes. These findings establish Task2Vec-based readiness as a principled, pre-training diagnostic for FL that may offer both predictive insight and actionable guidance for client selection in heterogeneous federations.