Beyond Cloud-9: The case for discovering more HI-rich failed halos

Abstract

HI-rich starless halos, should they exist, hold great promise for elucidating dark matter halo structure. Yet realizing this potential demands reliable theoretical predictions for their properties and abundances. Indeed, the recent identification of Cloud-9 as a strong HI-rich starless halo candidate in the nearby universe makes such predictions timely. This Letter examines HI-rich ($M_\mathrm{HI} \geq 10^6\,M_\odot$) starless (isolated/central) halos at $z=0$ across three cosmological simulations: FIREbox, Recal-EAGLE and NIVARIA-LG. All three successfully produce such objects, with $M_\mathrm{HI}$ extending up to $\sim\!1$--$2$ dex above Cloud-9, but with number densities that vary by a factor of $\sim30$. These populations span different regions of the $M_\mathrm{HI}$--$M_\mathrm{gas}$--$M_{200}$ space: NIVARIA-LG produces objects with higher $M_\mathrm{HI}$ and $M_\mathrm{gas}$ values ($\gtrsim 10^7$ and $\gtrsim 10^8\,M_\odot$), while FIREbox predicts they lie within extremely narrow ranges of $M_\mathrm{gas} \sim(1.1$--$1.6)\times10^8\,M_\odot$ and $M_{200} \sim(7.8$--$8.6)\times10^9\,M_\odot$. Recal-EAGLE and NIVARIA-LG exhibit a strong $M_\mathrm{gas}-M_{200}$ correlation, with similar slopes but different normalizations. The simulations predict numerical Cloud-9 analogs -- though similarities in the shapes of their HI column-density profiles may be driven by FAST's modest beam; halving it already reveals differences. Collectively, these inter-simulation discrepancies make a compelling case for discoveries beyond Cloud-9: a statistical sample of well-resolved HI-rich starless halos is needed to discriminate amongst competing predictions.