Macroscopic Activity-Based Modeling of Urban Active Mobility

Abstract

This paper develops a macroscopic, activity-based model of urban active mobility using nonintrusive sensor data. It introduces attendance functions to describe spatio-temporal travel patterns between activities and formulates the disaggregation of aggregated counts as a statistical inference problem. Counts are modeled as Poisson variables, and unknown subpopulation sizes are estimated via maximum likelihood, with theoretical guarantees and an efficient EM algorithm for computation. Grounded in a microscopic stochastic model, the framework offers a scalable and privacy-preserving approach to analyzing urban soft mobility dynamics.