How long can you trust a Starlink TLE? An empirical comparison of SGP4 and high-fidelity propagation against operator-updated truth across a megaconstellation

Abstract

We characterise position-error behaviour of Two-Line Element (TLE) propagation against operator-updated truth on Starlink, sweeping 24,641 next-TLE-truth pairs across 501 satellites stratified by altitude shell (540, 550, 560 km) and platform generation (v1.0, v1.5, v2-mini) over April 2026. Each pair is propagated with SGP4 and GMAT at high fidelity (EGM2008 $70\times70$, NRLMSISE-00 drag, Sun and Moon third-body gravity, conical-shadow SRP), then compared against the operator's next TLE as proxy truth. Three findings: First, position error follows a per-cell power law $\lVertΔ\mathbf{r}(Δt)\rVert \approx A\,Δt^{k}$ with fitted exponents in $(1,2)$ on every v2-mini cell and on the high-fidelity v1.x cells at 540 and 560 km, while SGP4 v1.x and high-fidelity v1.x at 550 km are sub-linear ($k \lesssim 1$); the cohort-specific mix of mean-motion bias and unmodelled in-track acceleration sets the per-cell exponent. Pooled $L_{2}$ medians grow from $\sim 1$ km at 6 h to $\sim 38$ km (SGP4) / $\sim 76$ km (high-fid) at 7 d. Second, high-fidelity propagation from public-TLE inputs does not improve over SGP4 at any of the four staleness horizons; SGP4 wins on $\sim 65$--$75\%$ of pairs, with v2-mini at long $Δt$ the one regime where high-fidelity wins on a majority of pairs at both populated shells. The negative result reflects operator-OD residual dominance at epoch, SGP4-vs-SGP4 truth-construction kernel alignment, and spacecraft-property bias amplification on the high-fidelity arm. Third, the per-satellite SGP4 staleness coefficient regressed against F10.7 returns a positive slope clearing conventional significance at one shell (560 km) on the 30-day, $\sim 17$ sfu window -- direction-consistent with the LEO density-gradient expectation, not a calibrated F10.7-modulation measurement.