Strategic Stalemates: The Paradox of Export Controls in the U.S.-China AI Race

Abstract

Export control is a policy and legal tool to protect national interests by regulating exports of sensitive goods and technology to foreign nations. It has become central to U.S.-China tech rivalry, especially in AI. Controls cover advanced chips, capital, personnel, and critical minerals for semiconductors. Since October 2022, the U.S. BIS has progressively tightened restrictions on advanced computing components to China. China responded with export curbs on critical minerals and filed a WTO complaint against the U.S. under GATT. This article argues that while export controls are strategic in U.S.-China AI competition, their long-term effectiveness is questionable. They often unintentionally boost China's self-reliance and R&D. Moreover, overly strict or arbitrary controls may violate WTO obligations, complicating dispute resolution and hindering AI progress. The study further examines legal implications of overusing export controls. It advocate for a restrained interpretation of security interests, arguing that commercial or dual-use AI models and semiconductors do not meet the security exception criteria under GATT Article XXI(b).