Spatial equity and decentralization trade-offs in deep decarbonization of the European power system

Abstract

Standard EU energy system modelling approaches optimize for least-cost, leading to highly centralized systems, in conflict with political feasibility and physical security concerns. This paper incorporates decentralisation as a constraint in a European energy system model using a novel, linear load-weighted renewable capacity constraint, the K-parameter, which scales with total system renewable capacity to avoid interference with decarbonisation targets. The model is a 37-node electricity-only brownfield system based on the PyPSA-EUR framework, with projected 2050 loads and technology costs. A total of 105 optimized scenarios are analyzed at 14 levels of decarbonization and 8 levels of decentralization. Full decarbonization leads to an 80% cost increase due to, among other factors, a 78% increase in energy generation capacity. Without decentralisation constraints, system equity initially improves but collapses at high decarbonisation levels due to concentration in regions with optimal renewable resources. Moderate decentralization of K=7 achieves 76% of the equity benefits at only a 9% cost increase compared to K=1. This indicates that moderate decentralization can be a viable strategy to balance societal preferences and cost-efficiency in the European energy transition.