Beyond First-order Asymptotics in Sequential Mean Testing

Abstract

We revisit the problem of sequentially testing the mean of bounded distributions in a level-$α$ power-one framework. We study a $\mathrm{KL_{inf}}$-based sequential test that is known to attain the information-theoretic lower bound on the expected stopping time with exact constants as $α\to 0$. Going beyond first-order asymptotics, we establish a central limit theorem (CLT) for the stopping time of this test. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. First, we prove a novel CLT for the $\mathrm{KL_{inf}}$ statistic itself, characterizing its fluctuations around its deterministic limit. We then leverage this result to show that the stopping time, centered appropriately and scaled by $\sqrt{\log(1/α)}$, converges in distribution to a Gaussian limit with an explicit variance. This yields a second-order characterization of an asymptotically optimal sequential test for bounded distributions. Finally, we present numerical experiments that corroborate our theoretical findings.