MODIS Thermal Infrared Sounding (MOTIS): Estimating Tropical Cyclone Central Pressure from Warm-Core Anomalies

Abstract

This study presents a novel framework for estimating the central sea-level pressure ($P_{\rm c}$) of tropical cyclones (TCs) using infrared radiometers. We leverage the long-overlooked combination of high spatial resolution and sounding capability of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to measure warm-core anomalies in TC eyes. We develop the MODIS Thermal Infrared Sounding (MOTIS) framework, which performs instrument-specific preprocessing and estimates $P_{\rm c}$ using multiple linear regression. MOTIS yields $r^2 = 0.945$ and RMSE = 4.3 hPa for high-intensity TCs ($\overline{P}_{\rm c} = 937$ hPa) with clear eyes observed, outperforming all existing methods for intense TCs. We construct a dataset of 3288 (1082 clear-eye) MOTIS estimates from 2002 to 2025 and demonstrate its potential to improve the quality of Best Track $P_{\rm c}$, roughly halving uncertainties in the absence of pressure observations. Although MODIS is nearing the end of its mission, the MOTIS framework could be extended to next-generation geostationary sounders to provide accurate real-time $P_{\rm c}$ estimation for high-intensity TCs.