Cluster-Aware Conformal Calibration for Spatio-Temporal Distributional Prediction

Abstract

DeepKriging-style models, such as Spatio-Temporal DeepKriging, improve scalability through basis-function embeddings and stochastic gradient learning; however, fixed regular-grid spatial bases remain inefficient under highly non-uniform sampling patterns, often over-allocating capacity to sparse regions while under-resolving dense clusters. To address this limitation, we propose a practical extension of DeepKriging for reliable spatio-temporal distributional forecasting, incorporating cluster-adaptive spatial bases - whose centers and scales are initialized from {the spatial sampling density} - to better capture heterogeneous spatial sampling, together with cluster-aware conformal calibration that determines prediction-interval widths within spatial clusters (with a global fallback when calibration samples are insufficient). The resulting calibration pipeline explicitly targets spatial heterogeneity and local miscalibration, and experiments, including simulation studies and PM$_{2.5}$ data analysis, demonstrate substantially improved coverage accuracy and tail reliability under clustered observation patterns compared with a global conformal baseline.