A Computational Model for Measuring Adaptability Among U.S. Farmers: Evidence from 1997-2022

Abstract

Agricultural crops are a type of cultural trait and the way farmers of US counties select them can itself result in county-level cultural traits. Using real-world data from 1997 to 2022, we have developed a systematic framework to study the selective mechanisms behind these traits. Our findings indicate that environmental payoff-biased selection has driven counties to adopt traits that maximize their adaptability and yield within their specific environments. These empirical results align with existing theoretical literature [3,16]. Additionally, a clear long-term selective trend is evident, showing that US counties are gradually developing a specific set of more complex combinatorial traits, which provide greater payoffs by enhancing the farmers' environmental adaptability. This study serves as a strong case for empirically modeling the cultural evolutionary processes among US farmers.