A cubical formalisation of conditional independence, Bayesian conditioning, and Pearl's d-separation soundness

Abstract

The standard convex-algebra interchange axiom, common to probability-monad formalisations since Stone, is provably too weak to support full Bayesian conditioning. We make this precise in Cubical Agda: finite distributions as a higher inductive type, conditional independence as a cubical path between kernels, recursive Bayesian conditioning as a total function on a full-support fragment. Lifting conditioning to the full HIT exposes a structural mismatch -- the two halves of the rearranged 4-leaf mix carry distinct Bayesian weights related by Bayes' formula, not the single shared inner weight the standard axiom provides. We exhibit the minimal generalisation that resolves this and prove the standard form is the degenerate case where the two inner weights coincide. Around this observation we verify the algebraic context constructively, with zero postulates above an abstract ordered-field interface: bind commutativity, the four semi-graphoid axioms, intersection (reduced to contraction via structural $Σ$-witnesses, without positivity), Pearl's do-calculus Rules~1, 2, and~3 in kernel form, finite-type Bayesian conditioning, and Pearl's d-separation theorem (soundness) on arbitrary $n$-vertex finite directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) in both interventional and Bayesian forms. The probability monad is also verified as a Markov category; the abstract interface discharges at $Q$.