Mechanistic mathematical model of the in vitro infection dynamics of Bunyamwera and Batai viruses including MOI-dependent shortening of the eclipse phase

Abstract

We develop a deterministic mathematical model to quantify the distinct in vitro infection dynamics of Bunyamwera virus (BUNV) and Batai virus (BATV) in A549 cells, incorporating cell division and natural death, continued entry of virions into already-infected cells, and shortening of the eclipse phase driven by re-infection. The model parameters were estimated making use of viral decay data, growth curves at two different inoculum concentrations, and extra-cellular genome copy measurements (for BUNV) via Markov chain Monte Carlo. Genome copy measurements were essential for constraining estimates of the number of cells that can become infected per unit of infectious virus for BUNV. We found that BUNV exhibited substantially longer eclipse and infectious periods than BATV, while BATV showed a higher per-cell virus production rate. Re-infection was predicted to shorten the eclipse phase for both viruses, but the effect was markedly stronger for BUNV. Together, these results provide a quantitative comparison of the in vitro viral kinetics of BUNV and BATV and reveal substantial differences in their replication dynamics.