Finite-shot operating windows for probabilistic error cancellation and Clifford data regression

Abstract

Quantum error mitigation on noisy devices is limited not only by residual bias but also by the shot noise and calibration errors introduced by the mitigation procedure itself. We derive finite-shot mean-square-error boundaries for probabilistic error cancellation (PEC), Clifford data regression (CDR), and no mitigation for noisy Pauli-observable estimates. Exact PEC removes the target bias under an exact noise inverse at the price of a quasi-probability variance overhead, whereas population linear CDR can have smaller target-shot variance but retains a calibration floor when the training and target noise responses do not match. This competition yields a finite CDR-dominant operating window whose upper endpoint scales as $B_{\mathrm{PEC}=\mathrm{CDR}}(p)\propto 1/(δ_1^2p)$, where $δ_1$ is the first-order CDR calibration mismatch. We further prove a target-response projection theorem showing that response-blind affine CDR removes the first-order bias only when the target noise response is affine in the ideal target value; otherwise a nonzero projection error gives an irreducible local calibration floor. The same mean-square-error formulation extends to second-order calibration, commuting Pauli Hamiltonians, finite CDR training shots, and residual PEC model bias. A closed-form two-qubit calculation and QAOA simulations support the predicted no-mitigation, CDR-dominant, and PEC-dominant regimes.