A Causal Foundation Model for Structure and Outcome Prediction

Abstract

We introduce TabPFN-CFM, a causal foundation model that can handle multiple causal problems. TabPFN-CFM predicts both causal structure and outcomes from observational data, supports queries on all three levels of Pearl's Causal Hierarchy and uses known graph structure when available to improve predictions. TabPFN-CFM is trained on synthetic datasets, and generalises to real datasets, demonstrating improved performance over both structural and outcome prediction baselines.