Spectral condensation in a finite nonequilibrium atmospheric transition

Abstract

Order parameters are difficult to define in high-dimensional nonequilibrium systems that lack a Hamiltonian, a thermodynamic limit or an observed control coordinate. Here we show that such transitions can be diagnosed from the spectrum of occupations over data-derived eigen-microstates. We combine Eigen Microstate Theory with a Marchenko--Pastur random-matrix baseline to isolate an emergent sector, whose entropy quantifies competition among statistically significant collective states. As a finite atmospheric realization, we analyse 51 sudden stratospheric warmings in ERA5. The event-aligned ensemble undergoes spectral condensation, decondensation and recondensation: a polar-vortex state dominated by a few eigen-microstates gives way to a high-entropy regime of competing emergent states before selecting a reorganized weak-vortex state. A stochastic wave--mean-flow model, in which upward wave-activity flux provides a reduced control coordinate, reproduces the same entropy maximum, collapse and top-down timing. These results identify emergent-sector entropy as an order-parameter-like, state-based spectral diagnostic for non-Hamiltonian transitions and place polar-vortex breakdown within a broader class of finite nonequilibrium phase reorganizations.