Critique of "Use of roster charts in the investigation and prosecution of nurses ..." by John O' Quigley

Abstract

The paper "Use of roster charts in the investigation and prosecution of nurses suspected of inflicting deliberate harm on patients" by Prof. John O'Quigley explores an interesting hypothesis concerning statistical information hidden in the part of the infamous Lucy Letby roster chart pertaining to the 37 other nurses. Unfortunately, we have to point out some serious errors in his statistical analyses. The data actually contains information which strongly disproves his main modelling assumption. We do, however, strongly agree with him that from a forensic statistical point of view, the roster chart is fake evidence which should not have been shown to jurors.