LEOSTP: A Spatio-Temporal Traffic Prediction Framework for LEO Satellite Networks

Abstract

With the evolution of next-generation mobile communication networks and the commercial boom of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, globally covered satellite networks are gradually becoming a crucial infrastructure for massive user access and seamless connectivity. Accurate traffic prediction is crucial for maintaining the quality of service (QoS) and resource allocation efficiency in satellite networks. However, existing methods struggle to effectively address the three major challenges of LEO networks: highly complex temporal dynamics caused by satellite cross-regional movement, multivariate dependencies in multi-satellite collaboration, and strong spatial heterogeneity driven by user distribution, human activity intensity, and local geographic environments. In this article, we propose a LEO Satellite Traffic Predictor (LEOSTP) framework, a diffusion model-based end-to-end model that forecasts future satellite traffic by jointly leveraging historical traffic patterns and contextual characteristics of the corresponding service regions. The framework consists of two core modules: 1) The general traffic feature extractor module combines the diffusion process with a Transformer architecture to model the multi-scale temporal features of the traffic itself. 2) The external condition encoder module integrates geographic semantic information such as population distribution, point-of-interest (POI) distribution, and local time into the prediction process through a Transformer-based encoder. In this way, the model captures the deep correlation between the external environment and traffic dynamics. Experimental results based on large-scale simulated constellation data show that LEOSTP significantly outperforms traditional statistical models such as ARIMA and SVR, and classical sequence models including LSTM and Transformer, in prediction accuracy.