Bank Earnings, Credit Supply & the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Canada

Abstract

This paper studies whether news about banks' balance sheets propagates to aggregate financial conditions and macroeconomic activity. We construct high-frequency Canadian bank net-worth shocks using stock-price reactions around earnings announcements of the six large Canadian banks. Guided by a model in which higher intermediary net worth expands credit supply and lowers borrowing spreads, we use the co-movement between bank equity prices and Canadian corporate spreads to purge raw bank equity surprises from contaminating information. Favorable purged credit-supply bank net-worth shocks lower corporate spreads, raise bank valuations and broader equity prices, appreciate the Canadian dollar, and increase real activity over the medium run. The results are robust across specifications, samples, and additional outcomes, and suggest that bank earnings news is macroeconomically relevant in concentrated banking systems.