Stable Qubit Readout and the Identifiability of Population Change

Abstract

Stable readout statistics are often taken as evidence for a well-defined physical response, but stability alone need not identify which state quantity has changed. We analyze this issue for finite collections of qubit states measured by binary readouts, focusing on changes in computational-basis population. The central question is when reproducible response data certify the sign or range of an underlying population change. We show that the answer is controlled by the calibrated measurement directions, not by loop consistency alone. For a fully calibrated finite readout family, we derive an exact closed-form interval of all compatible population changes. We also construct a same-record, jointly measurable example in which identical probabilities and accepted loop checks admit positive, zero, and negative population interpretations. When only a diagonal readout gain and a bound on coherence sensitivity are trusted, we obtain the sharp minimax interval and the necessary-and-sufficient sign condition $g>2χ$. These results separate implementation stability from population identifiability and provide analytic benchmarks for qubit readout calibration.