Pulses, waves, and cascades in collective migration dynamics

Abstract

Decisions to migrate depend on others' decisions. Dependence can produce nontrivial dynamics. We propose a minimal migration model that accounts for social influence alongside individual heterogeneity in mobility as migrants move from region to region. In special locations of parameter space, migrant flows dramatically and spontaneously fluctuate. Such aspects mimic observed fluctuations in migration statistics and thus show how large fluctuations in data can reflect more than response to events like armed conflict and natural disasters. Correspondingly, the impact of exogenous factors can be confounded with the results of collective decisions.