Uncertainty-aware tree height change regression

Abstract

Monitoring canopy height change is essential for understanding carbon sinks and forest dynamics. Remote sensing enables consistent, large-scale observations of such changes, increasingly integrated with deep learning architectures such as Geospatial Foundation Models (GFMs). However, existing methods and datasets frame the problem as binary change detection, which overlooks both the continuous nature of change, especially for vegetation, and the inherent uncertainty in labels. We present the Canopy Height Change (CHC) dataset, providing 3 $\mathrm{m}$ resolution continuous canopy height differences and associated spatially resolved uncertainties across 10598 $\mathrm{km}^2$ of northern and western Spain. The dataset is paired with a co-located time series of PlanetScope satellite imagery. Based on the dataset, we introduce the task of uncertainty-aware change regression, associated metrics and strategies for fine-tuning GFMs. Furthermore, we evaluate state-of-the-art GFMs and highlight promising directions and remaining challenges for advancing continuous canopy height change estimation.