Weak Evolution of Cosmic Atomic Hydrogen over the Past 4.5 Billion Years

Abstract

The cosmic star formation rate density (CSFRD) has declined sharply toward the present day, but the roles of the atomic and molecular gas reservoirs remain uncertain. We measure the cosmic HI density, $Ω_{\mathrm{HI}}$, over $0<z<0.41$ by combining HI spectra from the Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Telescope with optical spectroscopy from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument for $\sim2.5$ million galaxies across $\sim12,000\,{\rm deg}^2$. We measure a raw decrease in $Ω_{\mathrm{HI}}$ by a factor of $1.35\pm0.10$ over the past 4.5 Gyr. Even after applying the conservative systematic corrections from our forward model, the inferred decline is only $1.12\pm0.10$ -- still far weaker than the CSFRD decline (a factor of 2.46). The molecular gas density, in contrast, is known to evolve more closely with star formation. At fixed stellar mass, the average HI gas fraction evolves by less than 0.2 dex, showing that the weak evolution is present across the galaxy population. These quantitative differences rule out rapid depletion of galaxy HI as the primary driver of the late-time CSFRD decline, and provide a stringent benchmark for models of gas accretion, phase conversion and star-formation regulation.