The Generalization Gap in Machine Learning EoS Inference from Core-Collapse Supernova Gravitational Waves

Abstract

Core-collapse supernova gravitational waves may carry information about the dense matter equation of state (EoS), which describes the relation between pressure, density, temperature, and composition. This work tests a crucial question for physical inference: can a machine learning model trained on a finite simulation catalogue predict EoS parameters for an EoS family that was absent during training? Under standard random cross-validation, a LightGBM regressor appears highly successful, yielding $R^2=(0.70,0.67,0.60)$ for the nuclear incompressibility, symmetry energy, and slope parameter $(K_0,J,L)$. However, under Leave-One-EoS-Out (LOEO) validation, where all waveforms from a single EoS are withheld, the model fails, yielding mean absolute errors of $(44.57,3.19,30.54)$ MeV and negative pooled $R^2$ scores, performing worse than a baseline mean predictor. This generalisation gap persists across linear models, random forests, neural networks, and gradient-boosted trees. Restricting inputs to physical features (bounce amplitude, bounce width, peak frequency) reduces template leakage, the memorisation of related templates shared across random splits, but does not restore reliable EoS extrapolation. In contrast, a progenitor mass case study shows that classification generalises to unseen rotation speeds, while continuous mass regression compresses predictions towards the catalogue interior. These results demonstrate that while machine learning successfully interpolates within current waveform catalogues, this does not imply robust physical inference for unseen EoS models. Future pipelines should adopt leave-family-out validation, wider simulation coverage, and physics-aware inference frameworks.