Will AstroForge Collapse the PGM Market?

Abstract

AstroForge seeks to mine platinum group metals (PGM) from asteroids. Asteroid reserves appear to be unlimited, and at current market price the gross margin of asteroid mining would be very high. It is natural to ask: when AstroForge successfully demonstrates economic space mining of PGM, will they cause the PGM market to collapse? We answer the question with a non-steady system dynamics model of the PGM market. We find that the market price for PGM will eventually drop towards the much lower cost of asteroid mining, but only after the entire supply has shifted off-world. In the meanwhile, huge fortunes will be made. And everybody on Earth will benefit from new applications of lower-price PGM.