A 'normal' research trap limits scientific breakthroughs and disruptive innovation in the European Union

Abstract

Europe is experiencing prolonged slow growth, resulting in part from a shortage of disruptive innovations that has locked its industry into a middle technology trap. Although greater investment and deeper integration among EU member states are widely proposed as solutions, this study argues that these measures alone will be insufficient if breakthrough research is not improved. In research systems, breakthrough discoveries depend on both size and efficiency. The EU research system is constrained by a dual problem: it is substantially smaller than China's and significantly less efficient than that of the United States. As a result, it generates too few breakthrough discoveries to sustain competitiveness in high-technology sectors. Compared with the United Kingdom, the persistent underperformance of the EU's largest research systems, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain has long been evident, yet meaningful reforms have not been implemented. Meanwhile, China's capacity for breakthrough research continues to expand rapidly. Despite sustained academic criticism, the European Commission has largely based its research policy on overly optimistic assessments of research performance that satisfy policymakers and researchers but fail to address structural weaknesses. Achieving a more balanced global technological landscape and strengthening Europe's competitiveness will require not only greater integration among member states but also a substantial improvement in research efficiency. Without such gains, the EU is unlikely to attract the private investment needed for high technology industries, while additional public spending risks diverting resources from other sectors without addressing the underlying causes of Europe's innovation deficit.