Dynamic Frechet Regression with Feature Selection for Distributional Data

Abstract

Many scientific and engineering applications generate responses that are not scalars or vectors, but statistical objects whose form evolves over an ordered index such as time, depth. Probability distributions are a prominent example, capturing variability and uncertainty that cannot be summarized by low-dimensional statistics. When such responses are observed sequentially, the resulting dynamic distributional trajectories pose significant challenges for regression, particularly in relating scalar predictors to both within-index variability and cross-index evolution. We propose Dynamic Fréchet Regression (DFR), a framework for modeling index-dependent trajectories of distribution-valued responses. DFR extends Global Fréchet Regression by introducing an index-aware weighting mechanism. At each index, predictions are defined as weighted Fréchet means in a metric space of distributions (e.g., Wasserstein space), preserving the intrinsic geometry of the response. The weights depend jointly on predictor similarity and index proximity, enabling index-specific prediction while borrowing strength across neighboring indices. To improve interpretability in high-dimensional settings, DFR incorporates a geometry-aware feature selection approach based on sparse metric learning, which identifies predictors driving distributional dynamics without relying on Euclidean coefficients. Simulation studies show improved predictive accuracy and feature recovery over existing methods. An application to additive manufacturing data demonstrates its ability to produce interpretable, index-specific distributional predictions.