Gaussian-process evidence for a stochastic-variability transition in the recovering corona of 1ES 1927+654

Abstract

We investigate the stochastic X-ray variability of the changing-look active galactic nucleus 1ES 1927+654 during its 2018--2024 evolution, focusing on the recovery of the X-ray corona after its 2018 collapse. Using XMM-Newton EPIC-pn light curves in the 0.3--2.0 keV and 2.0--10.0 keV bands, we model the variability with Gaussian process (GP) covariance components including Matérn-3/2, damped-random-walk (DRW), stochastically driven damped simple-harmonic-oscillator (SHO), and white-noise terms. Bayesian model comparison reveals an X-ray stochastic-variability transition during the changing-look recovery phase. In the 2019 May 5 observation, the preferred covariance changes from a Matérn-3/2-like state to a DRW-like state within a single continuous exposure. A phenomenological gated-kernel estimate localizes this transition sharply in the hard band at $t_c\simeq23.5~{\rm ks}$, while the soft band shows the same qualitative change over a broader interval. This transition occurs after the X-ray corona had reappeared but before the later pronounced hardening and brightening of the coronal emission, suggesting an early timing-domain signature of disk--corona reconfiguration. Phenomenologically, the dominant variability evolves from a smoother, finite-memory correlated process to a rougher, shorter-memory red-noise process. In the later 2022--2024 observations, SHO-like components associated with the known millihertz QPO show increasing characteristic frequency and quality factor, indicating a faster and more coherent oscillatory component during the QPO-plus-jet phase. GP-based time-domain inference therefore provides a sensitive probe of stochastic-variability changes in recovering AGN coronae.