Affordable low-carbon electricity pathways for India under uncertainty

Abstract

To meet its carbon neutrality goal by 2070, India must accelerate the decarbonization of its electricity system. However, uncertainty in technology costs and electricity demand, together with the need to balance high shares of solar and wind generation, makes planning India's electricity transition challenging. Here, we develop and examine cost-optimal pathways for generation, storage, and transmission expansion in India under alternative technology costs, electricity demand projections, and clean energy and carbon-emission targets. Across all scenarios, real average system costs remain lower in all future years (2030-2050) than in 2020, even when carbon emissions decline linearly to 90% below current levels by 2050. Solar PV comprises over half to three-quarters of total installed capacity in most scenarios. Large-scale deployment of short-duration battery storage provides both energy balancing and reliability during net-peak demand hours. Expanding green hydrogen, pumped hydro storage, and nuclear capacity reduces costs by less than 2%, whereas demand response programs reduce costs by up to 10%. Falling renewable energy and battery storage costs along with demand response programs allow India to meet both electricity affordability and climate goals.