Robust Subgroup Analysis for Heterogeneous Censored Data

Abstract

Subgroup analysis is important in practice because real-world data typically come from heterogeneous populations, where meaningful patterns can differ substantially across subpopulations. Correctly identifying these subgroups can improve prediction accuracy, prevent biased or misleading conclusions, and support more effective, targeted decision-making. While most existing subgroup analysis methods are developed for complete data, in this paper we propose a novel and robust approach for censored data under heterogeneous accelerated failure time (AFT) models. Specifically, we combine inverse probability weighting, M-estimation, and concave pairwise fusion penalization to simultaneously identify subgroups and estimate covariate effects for heterogeneous censored data, without requiring prior knowledge of individual subgroup memberships. We further develop an efficient RISA-ADMM algorithm to implement the method and establish its convergence. Furthermore, we derive the theoretical properties of the proposed estimators under mild regularity conditions. Extensive simulations and an application to the German credit dataset demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of our approach.