The JADES Transient Survey III: Linking Core-Collapse Supernova Rates to Cosmic Star Formation

Abstract

We investigate how core-collapse supernova (CCSN) rates trace the star-formation rate densities (SFRDs) over the redshift range $0 \le z \le 5$. For this we use new high-redshift results from the James Webb Space Telescope Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey (JADES) Transient Survey (JTS, see the companion paper by DeCoursey et al. 2026), together with published CCSN rates. Using the observed CCSN rates to constrain the CCSN production efficiency relating SFRDs to CCSN rates, we examine how the inferred connection between star formation rates and CCSN production efficiency depends on the stellar initial mass function (IMF) and the adopted CCSN progenitor mass range. We find that the observed CCSN rates are consistent with dust extinction-corrected UV+IR based SFRDs for plausible CCSN progenitor masses. Using the observed CCSN rates to directly reconstruct the cosmic star-formation history, we recover a peak at z $\sim2$, in agreement with galaxy luminosity-based determinations. Allowing the IMF to evolve with redshift has only a modest impact when SFRD estimates are treated consistently, indicating that CCSN rates are not as sensitive to the change of IMF as might be assumed. Adopting higher SFRDs that include a dust-obscured population of faint millimeter sources implies a substantial and increasing fraction of missing, dust-obscured CCSNe at higher redshifts. Although the inferred fraction of CCSNe missed by the surveys depends on the adopted CCSN production efficiency, we find an increasing fraction of supernovae missed due to obscuration, rising from modest values at low redshift to a peak at z $\sim2$, and remaining substantial toward z $\sim5$.