Vacuum Energy: Cosmological Constant or Quintessence?

Abstract

For a flat universe presently dominated by smooth energy, either cosmological constant (LCDM) or quintessence (QCDM), we calculate the asymptotic collapsed mass fraction as function of the present ratio of smooth energy to matter energy $\mathcal R_0$. Identifying the normalized collapsed fraction as a conditional probability for habitable galaxies, we observe that the observed present ratio $\mathcal R_0 \sim 2$ is likely in LCDM, but more likely in QCDM. Inverse application of Bayes' Theorem makes the Anthropic Principle a predictive scientific principle: the data implies that the prior probability for $\mathcal R_0$ must be essentially flat over the anthropically allowed range. Interpreting this prior as a distribution over {\em theories} lets us predict that any future theory of initial conditions must be indifferent to $\mathcal R_0$. This application of the Anthropic Principle does not demand the existence of other universes.