The sharp peak-flat trough pattern and critical speculation

Abstract

We find empirically a characteristic sharp peak-flat trough pattern in a large set of commodity prices. We argue that the sharp peak structure reflects an endogenous inter-market organization, and that peaks may be seen as local ``singularities'' resulting from imitation and herding. These findings impose a novel stringent constraint on the construction of models. Intermittent amplification is not sufficient and nonlinear effects seem necessary to account for the observations.